A lackluster futures-based ETH ETF launch and a dearth of compelling narratives in Ethereum favor reduced ETH exposure. I anticipate ongoing October consolidation, extending the BTC accumulation window as medium-term fundamentals remain solid.
The market dramatically underestimates the impact of U.S. ETFs. A slow September favor strategic positioning ahead of an October packed with market-moving events. I favor a mix of increased ETH exposure and conservatively leveraged long exposure in BTC
The anemic summer revives the attractiveness of straddles as we approach months filled with known knowns and unknown unknowns. Further, the slow market is promising to further build exposure as we head towards a robust cyclical period for BTC.
The resurgence of the U.S. ETF race represents a monumental change to bitcoin, with all ingredients in place for a spicy market in the coming nine months in favor of more aggressive positioning in BTC.
My short-term outlook has improved after a slow but SEC-heavy February and a BTC push toward $28k could happen sooner rather than later. Further, Shanghai represents attractive narrative-based opportunities in favor of increased weighing in LDO and ETH.
Short-term, I am bearish as the crypto market strength seems over-extended across multiple metrics, while a FED pivot still seems far away. Long-term, I am steadfastly bullish as BTC reclaims pre-FTX trauma levels.