31 Jan 2023

Ahead of the Curve - January 31

Bitcoin's momentum has come to a halt, and we see the first tendencies of increased risk appetite from offshore longs while institutional participation remains high as the FOMC press conference approaches.
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The past week has seen the crypto market consolidate after a remarkable period of sustained strength. BTC trades flat for the week but pushed higher this Sunday before erasing the entire upside on Monday, differing from the two previous weekend rallies, which have yet to be retraced. The strong momentum in BTC has seen a gradual decline. The daily RSI has fallen below 70, while this weekend showed tendencies of increased activity from perpetual swap long traders who got washed out as BTC retraced its weekend gains on Monday. This observation differs from past observations of shorts being chased and could suggest that the dynamic in the market is changing in support of stabilizing momentum onwards. Nonetheless, speculative institutional participation grew further this week, accompanied by positive futures premiums, which should be viewed as a positive near-term development.We provide a FOMC primer and a look into recent BTC ETP flows in this week's edition of "Ahead of the Curve".
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Ahead of the curve - Jan 31 2023
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