20 Jun 2022

Bitcoin is no stranger to long and painful drawdowns

Throughout its 13-year history, bitcoin has been through several boom-bust cycles.
Source: Tradingview (Bitstamp)
The current 222-day long drawdown of -73% may feel painful, but the faith of bitcoin hodlers was tested much harder in 2013 and 2017.After peaking in November 2013, bitcoin would not reach its bottom until a 407-day-long fall of 85%. The bear market that followed the $20k ATH in December 2017 was almost as bad, lasting 364 days with a maximum drawdown of 84%.If bitcoin follows the blueprint of these cycles, a bottom should occur sometime in late Q4 2022, at a price as low as $10,350. Still, while historical comparisons are interesting, bitcoin is now far more intertwined in the broad financial markets, with the Fed, US elections, crypto regulations, and stock market impacting its performance.Veteran hodlers know that pain and agony is the price we pay for upside asymmetry.
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