Bitcoin is down 32% from its ATH. As evident by the chart, huge drawdowns in bull markets are a common feature in bitcoin. However, the slow summer signals that the market is a different beast now compared to 2017, when sell-offs were frequent and absorbed rapidly.

This has a natural explanation. Until 2020, bitcoin and the crypto market, in general, had idiosyncratic price discovery processes. However, as bitcoin gradually got adopted by institutional investors, it naturally became more susceptible to developments in traditional markets in addition to its distinctive bitcoin-related news, such as Chinese bitcoin bans or nation-states adopting bitcoin.

Bitcoin is down 32% from its ATH. As evident by the chart, huge drawdowns in bull markets are a common feature in bitcoin. However, the slow summer signals that the market is a different beast now compared to 2017, when sell-offs were frequent and absorbed rapidly.

This has a natural explanation. Until 2020, bitcoin and the crypto market, in general, had idiosyncratic price discovery processes. However, as bitcoin gradually got adopted by institutional investors, it naturally became more susceptible to developments in traditional markets in addition to its distinctive bitcoin-related news, such as Chinese bitcoin bans or nation-states adopting bitcoin.

Now, macro plays a more important role in bitcoin’s price action. The market is paying close attention to the outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting. Interest rate hikes and accelerated tapering to dampen inflation could impact bitcoin in the near term.

Mid-December has marked monumental shifts in bitcoin in the last four years.

• In the 2017 bull market, BTCs ATH was reached on Dec 17th.

• In 2018, the bitcoin bear market bottomed at $3100 on Dec 17th.

• Six months of strength ensued. However, bitcoin once again went into a sluggish phase in the latter half of 2019, and the downward trend once again ended on Dec 17th, with bitcoin trading at $6550.

• In 2020, bitcoin surpassed $20,000 on the eve of Dec 16th.

While bitcoin has matured over the last years, this December could also mark a monumental shift in bitcoin, with the most obvious catalyst being the outcome of the ongoing FOMC meetings.