11 Oct 2021

CME front-month contract trading at premium

The CME front-month contract traded at a premium to the front-month contracts of the other unregulated futures exchanges in the last week.
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In 2021, a CME premium over the other futures exchanges has been an unusual sight, but in the last week, a CME premium on the front-month contract has emerged. This could indicate that CME traders have a bullish outlook on the ETF decision. Next week could potentially be eventful, as ProShares and Invesco could receive their verdicts. Throughout the latter parts of 2020, CME traded at a premium to the other futures exchanges. This was a bullish period for bitcoin, with BTC seeing a stable growth up towards the Dec’17 ATH. From February to April, there was a very pronounced basis discount on CME compared to the other exchanges. This was a period of peak euphoria, and from the chart, one can clearly see that the peak discounts emerged near local BTC tops. In late June, we saw a sharp CME basis premium following the June 25th expiry, with bitcoin trading at around $32,000. By expiry on July 30th, bitcoin was trading at $40,000. Now, CME is once again trading at a premium to the other exchanges, with bitcoin trading at $57,000. CME futures have never traded at a premium at such BTC highs before. The growing open interest and the front-month contracts surging basis premium suggest that institutional traders have a bullish outlook on bitcoin.
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