31 Jan 2022
Seventh 50% drawdown in ETH historyThe ETH price recently bottomed at $2,200, a 55% drop against its ATH of $4,812 on November 7th, 2021. That amounts to a loss of more than $280B in market cap, the largest loss in its history.
Source: Tradingview (Coinbase)
Interestingly, a 50% drop in value from ATH takes 38 days on average for ETH. While spectacular and painful, the current drop has been the slowest in history and occurred 75 days after the ATH in November.Recovery takes longer—excluding the 2018 ‘crypto winter’ episode in which it took ETH three full years to surpass its previous ATH—the average is 165 days.ETH decreased 94% from its ATH during the 2018 crypto winter, compared to the 50% dip in March 2016, which recovered in just 67 days.Ethereum and the broader crypto ecosystem look very different from 2016-2018. Still, if history is any indication, and leaving out a new glacial period like 2018, we could perhaps see prices back in the $4,000 range as early as July 2022.However, the recent big drops are also influenced by continued surging inflation and signals from the Fed that the central bank will begin slowing down emergency measures.If one thing is certain, it is that the future will include plenty more volatility.