02 Aug 2022

Spike in futures premiums – highest level in almost two months

We saw a large spike in the futures premiums before the weekend, climbing to levels not seen in almost two months. The premium on CME increased the most but quickly fell back as we moved into August.
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Traders in the bitcoin futures market got excited before the weekend, as we saw a significant spike in futures premiums, likely related to the stock market rally that also led to the spike in the bitcoin price. The 3-month basis on CME topped out close to 5% last week, the highest level seen in almost three months.
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Source: Skew
Offshore exchanges saw similar movements and climbed to the highest levels in almost two months. FTX topped out close to 5% as well, with Binance seeing a high of around 4%. The futures premiums are now dropping again, especially CME, which sits at 2.4%. FTX is leading the way with almost 3.2% this morning. The trend has been evident over the past month. Futures traders are now more optimistic as the premiums are back at the levels we saw in April before the brutal crash and contagion effects began.
Funding rates trending towards neutral levels
As observed with futures premiums, the funding rates are also trending towards a more positive state.
Source: Skew
Perp traders are slightly more optimistic this week, with the average funding rate spending more time at the neutral level. The average funding rate has not touched negative territory in more than a week, something we haven’t seen since the bitcoin price peaked four months ago. The average funding rate has slowly been trending towards the neutral level since mid-June, with the climbing bitcoin price. As mentioned last week, the leverage in the futures market is still quite elevated in BTC terms, and the growing optimism could open up for more liquidations if the market quickly turns to the downside.
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