23 Aug 2022
The 2022 bear market is on track with the 2018 bear marketThe current bitcoin drawdown has lasted for 286 days, and we are currently down 70% from the all-time high. The 2018 and 2014 bear markets lasted for 12-13 months, with maximum drawdowns of 85%.
The current bitcoin drawdown has lasted for 286 days, and we are currently down 70% from the all-time high. Still, the peak depth of the drawdown of 74% occurred in June, 222 days from the ATH. In the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, the bottoms occurred 12-13 months after the bear markets began, with a max drawdown of 84-85%. If history is to repeat, a bottom could be expected to form near the year-end. Still, the market is a different beast this time around. Last year’s double top in April and November was unlike what we’ve previously seen in bitcoin, and so was the push down below the previous ATH experienced during the massive liquidation of 3AC in June. The 2018 bear market saw compressed volatility for prolonged durations with a 140-day leg of prices ranging from $6-7k before the final climax down towards $3k, resulting in flat markets for 120 days. Similar tendencies are evident today, with prices having ranged in the lower $20k area for 70 days. Nevertheless, drawdowns of 70% have previously been a good place to begin dollar cost averaging into BTC, regardless of further turmoil.