Another resilience test: The Midterms are here
CME open interest has plunged to three-year lows while perp leverage climbs higher. With BTC hovering near key support and U.S. midterms approaching, our proprietary regime indicator signals a considerable likelihood of a major move ahead.
Preview
Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience despite a turbulent week marked by Binance’s record $6.3bn hack and a U.S. interest rate decision. BTC fell just 3.4% to around $77,000, outperforming Nasdaq futures (-4.1%).Today, the U.S. midterm elections could trigger substantial volatility, with prediction markets assigning a 71% probability to Democrats winning both chambers. This combination of thin liquidity and elevated leverage increases the risk of sharp price swings once market activity picks up following the election.Bitcoin ETPs recorded heavy weekly outflows of 10,971 BTC, pushing 30-day flows to -21,060 BTC, their weakest level since July 24th. Friday saw the largest daily outflow since June 25th, with 9,586 BTC leaving ETFs following the Binance hack. Meanwhile, average daily spot volumes rose just 7% to $2.7bn, highlighting unusually subdued market activity despite signific