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Ahead Of The Curve
21 Mar 2023

Bitcoin - A risk asset or a system hedge?

Up 40% over the past 10 days
Ahead of the curve mar 21
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In Short

Bitcoin has surged amidst the backdrop of bank collapses and fears of contagion. Is bitcoin acting as a safe haven asset or simply reacting to expectations of potentially lower interest rates? Dive into our latest market report to learn more.

Takeaways

  • Bitcoin climbing above $28,000
  • Volumes to new highs
  • Futures basis to new yearly highs on CME
  • Record ProShares flows
  • Clear shift in options trading sentiment
  • Fluctuating interest rate expectations, and a massive jump in the FED's balance sheet

Bitcoin up 40% over the past 10 days

The Credit Suisse collapse and the following increased central bank mandates for the frequency of US dollar liquidity interventions, paint a picture of potentially volatile times to come. We believe the sentiment surrounding bitcoin and crypto to balance on a knife edge, where viable future paths include a new bull run and a quick drawdown. FED’s interest rate decision on Wednesday is the first important crossroads. The interest rate expectations are unusually volatile this week, and tomorrow’s decision can, therefore, affect markets more than usual.  
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