28 Feb 2023

Sticky inflation sends BTC in the red

Bitcoins' (-6%) momentum halted last week after failing to break through the $25,000 resistance. Last week’s PCE reading came in higher than expected, leading to a negative market reaction, as the market readjusted hiking expectations for the March 22 FOMC
Ahead of the curve (17)

In Short

In this report, we provide our monthly market outlook, where we have a positive bias due to the burgeoning CME premium and the upcoming Shanghai update to Ethereum. We further illustrate how offshore futures have moved away from traditional futures, with perps dominating the entire offshore market. Lastly, we elaborate on why we have chosen not to include Bitget or MEXC derivatives data in our reports.


  • Bitcoin sees a 6% fall, primarily driven by a PCE surprise
  • Extraordinarily erratic short-lived altcoin rotations suggests frequent capital rotation in illiquid markets
  • CME's basis remains high, suggesting a positive institutional outlook
  • MEXC's OI to PoR ratio of 457% and Bitgets OI to PoR ratio of 428% is well above industry average, potentially indicating manipulated data
  • Traditional futures only contribute to 11% of the offshore OI, down from 38% in April 2021
Apart from the PCE reading, last week was relatively quiet, and we note no relevant changes to the market structure or general sentiment. CME still trades in a promising premium, and offshore activity reigns idle while IVs in options have fallen to attractive straddle levels.
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