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Ahead Of The Curve
29 Sep 2025

A liquidity slowdown?

The market structure remains stagnant. CME passivity, elevated leverage in perps as BTC consolidates. A potential partial U.S. government shutdown elevates uncertainty, while Asian banking holidays may soften market liquidity.
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After dipping to one-month lows, BTC and ETH staged strong recoveries, ending the week roughly flat, with BTC at $112,880. Looking ahead, ETF launches for altcoins and a potential 180 from Vanguard could shift sentiment, but macro uncertainties, like a possible U.S. government shutdown and Asian market holidays, pose risks to liquidity and near-term developments.
A stagnant market structure
A CME gap between $110,000 and $111,500 opened after Sunday’s rally, with such gaps often revisited. Futures premiums were volatile but recovered to 8% after dipping to 5.5%, while the term structure remains soft, reflecting cautious sentiment. CME open interest fell to a 5-month low post-expiry, driven by low leveraged ETF exposure, with overall activity subdued despite a modest rise in active trader positions.Perpetual funding rates remain choppy and slightly below neutral, averaging 4.6
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