Calm after the storm
BTC has gone quiet after the crash: spot volumes are down 59%, longs are exiting, ETF holdings have seen a record drawdown, and Fear & Greed hit 5. Our regime model echoes late-2022 lows, and point to a long $60–75k grind ahead.
Preview
After two sharp weekly drawdowns, the market saw a calmer week with BTC trading rangebound between $65,000 and $70,000. Activity dropped significantly as spot volumes fell 59% week over week and perpetual futures open interest declined to four month lows, reflecting typical post sell off behavior as markets take time to absorb losses and adjust to a new range. Upcoming banking holidays across Asia, including week long closures in China for the Lunar New Year and holidays in Brazil, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, further increase the likelihood of subdued trading activity in the week ahead.Total BTC held by BTC ETPs has fallen
