All bitcoin needed was some clarity
As unknowns became knowns, capital returned to BTC, lifting it toward the yearly open. Technical, structural, narrative, and seasonal signals remain encouraging, supporting our bullish bias, though rising yields point to growing risk appetite.
Preview
BTC (10%) finally broke out of several weeks of consolidation, climbing to its highest levels since January and marking the first major higher high of this year’s drawdown. Price action had appeared constrained by uncertainty surrounding last week’s major events, with both the Fed decision and the Clarity Act vote hanging over the market. Once those events were out of the way, directional activity quickly returned.BTC now trades near resistance at the $87,500 yearly open, while remaining comfortably above all major moving averages and having reclaimed the BTC ETF cost basis. ETF flows responded strongly to the breakout, with the largest notional one-day net inflow since November 2024, while derivatives activity has also picked up. Still, positioning remains relatively modest, and funding rates and futures basis continue to point to cautious optimism rather than excessive leverage. We therefore reiterate our bullish bias, supported by stronger momentum, reduced event uncertainty, improving structural demand, limited Strategy-related sell-side risk, modest leverage, and favorable seasonality into the quarter ahea
