Going to be a big week
Back-to-back catalysts ahead. Markets are positioned for a hike and failed Clarity vote, skewing surprise to the upside. If either event lands better than expected, BTC has room to react sharply higher, while downside looks more contained.
Preview
A potentially big week awaits Bitcoin, but expectations for volatility may be running ahead of reality. Both key outcomes are already heavily priced in, while derivatives positioning remains relatively healthy, with balanced leverage and limited liquidation risk. Still, tonight’s Clarity Act cloture vote and tomorrow’s FOMC could provide clear directional triggers. The market is positioned for the adverse outcomes: an interest rate hike and a failed Clarity Act vote. That skews the surprise to the upside. If either event lands better than expected, BTC has room to react sharply higher, while downside looks more contained.After more than half a year of relentless chop, traders are waiting for volatility to return. More importantly, the broader setup remains highly attractive. BTC has already endured a drawdown of more than 50%, with over half of supply trading at a loss, and has recently reclaimed its 200w, 200
