We summarize Q1 and Q2 of 2024 and provide flavor on our outlook for the remainder of the year.
Preview
2024, we’re halfway there
The first half of 2024 has seen solid 48% gains in BTC. The growth is caused by the January ETF launch homerun, attracting $14bn in net inflows, showcasing the huge appetite for BTC exposure. ETH has mirrored BTC closely throughout the year, but ETHBTC remains at 3-year depths. Will ETH ETFs alter this momentum?
This report provides a brief flavor of performance and flows, pushing the market toward its current state. A common theme throughout the report is charts going up and to the right in Q1 before chopping south in Q2. From February 8 to March 14, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of 156,000 BTC, sparring exuberance from risk takers positioned for Up Only markets. Derivatives yields pushing to multi-year highs and memecoins flying to the moon provided an omen of a market out of balance. A well-needed but boring chop ensued, a tendency we expect to continue throughout the summer.
While our overall Q3 outlook is bleak, we expect new all-time highs in Q4. Crypto popping up as a theme ahead of the U.S. election, delayed halving effects, solid seasonality, expanded access to crypto ETFs via broker-dealers, and rate cuts set the stage for a positive gust to end the year.
With my fingers crossed for a sunny summer and pleasant grass touching, I look forward keep you informed on the state of market throughout the year.
