H1 2025 Round-Up
We provide a brief summary of key themes from the first half of 2025: a half-year of uniquely low relative volatility, increased global tensions, treasury company proliferations, risk aversion from traders, and a significant stablecoin breakthrough.
Preview
Our regular uploading schedule will resume on Tuesday July 29. The first six months of the year saw BTC trade in relatively mild volatility. Q1 marked a sharp drawdown as the market adjusted to tariff impacts on the global economy, whereas Q2 marked a steady recovery, pulling half-year returns back in the green. H1 2025 was the S&P 500's second-most volatile half-year since 2012. This contrasts sharply with BTC, which recorded the third-lowest half-year volatility in the same period. While gold was the strongest performer among major assets, Bitcoin's market cap relative to U.S. equities grew further in the first half of 2025, reaching 3.39% by the end of June. While it's been six strong months for BTC, the same cannot be said for altcoins. Only three altcoins in the top 50 outperformed BTC, and only eight altcoins in the top 50 saw positive returns in H1, 2025. Stablecoins were the sector that thrived following the solid progress of the GENIUS Act in the U.S., culminating in Circle going public, with its share price soaring in value.64 new companies adopted BTC treasury strategies in the first half of the year, and combined, the 134 publicly listed BTC treasury companies absorbed 244,991 BTC in H1. After a rocky start to the year, ETF flows strengthened, culminating in ETPs absorbing 106,983 BTC in the first half of the year. Activity was considerably more passive in derivatives. Both CME and perps faced lower activity, declining open interest, low yields and broad risk aversion. We enter H2, 2025 with a defensively positioned market.