H1 2026 Round-Up
We provide a brief summary of key themes from the first half of 2026: a half-year where BTC faced continued underperformance relative to other risk assets, despite continued positive adoption headlines.
Preview
This short slide deck provides a high-level overview of the major forces that shaped Bitcoin's performance in the first half of 2026Link to the report Bitcoin has continued to underperform relative to equities. In 2025, this weakness was primarily driven by large-scale selling from long-term holders. In 2026, the underperformance has instead reflected subdued demand for BTC, as investors have found more attractive opportunities in other risk assets, combined with repeated waves of record ETF selling. A market characterized by limited committed buying and periods of intense selling pressure will naturally trend lower, as we have seen throughout 2026.We now believe the worst of the drawdown is likely behind us. Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% from its peak, more than half of the circulating supply is currently held at an unrealized loss, and the price has dropped below its four-year average cost basis. While the historical four-year cycle suggests further downside remains possible, we expect this cycle's maximum drawdown to be materially less severe than in previous cycles because the preceding bull market was comparatively moderate.
