26 Mar 2024

The Forces Moving Bitcoin

In this report, we present a framework aiming to describe which factors are relevant for bitcoin's price discovery, the interplay between them, and how their importance varies over time.
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Report Contents

Chapter 1 - Report Summary- 15 factors moving Bitcoin. Chapter 2 - Bitcoin is scarce- The supply cap makes bitcoin extremely sensitive to demand waves. Chapter 3 - What determines bitcoin's price?- Demand factors: Sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, accessibility - Supply factors: The halving, lost coins- Structural factors: Portfolio rebalancing, management fees, cyclicality, BTC treasuries from operating profits, leverage, carry-trades, miners selling coinsChapter 4: Applying the framework to trading- Which factors mattered in the past- Which factors will matter onwards
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