11 Apr 2023

A reliable pattern or an illusory correlation?

BTC’s current drawdown and recovery cycle is remarkably similar to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory. Let's look at some clues from the past.
BTC Drawdowns
Source: Tradingview


  • If history repeats BTC will peak around May 20 at $45,000
  • Current BTC price cycle remarkable similar to previous cycles
  • Committed long-term holders are still unwilling to sell at 60% drawdown
  • The early 2023 rally has all the hallmarks of a hated rally
While no one should expect a 1:1 mirroring of the current drawdown to previous drawdowns, the resemblance to the 2018 drawdown is staggering. The two drawdowns are similar in terms of duration from peak to trough, and the recovery trajectory. The peak-to-trough drawdown was more severe in 2018 at 84% versus 78% in 2022, but apart from that, similarities are eye-catching.
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