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Analysis

27 Feb 2024
My long term investment case for bitcoin
There are short-term factors like the new U.S. ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving. But the longer-term case rests on larger macro factors, says Torbjørn Bull Jenssen.
16 Jan 2024
Massive ETF launch – Lackluster price action
A hugely successful ETF launch, with the new U.S. Bitcoin ETFs seeing 47,654 BTC in inflows and seeding in its first two days of trading.
14 Jan 2024
Why you should sell all your ADA
The Cardano network’s complete lack of meaningful activity will make the Ada token worthless over time.
10 Dec 2023
Stay away from the NFTs
Our Head of Research tells you why he thinks you should stay away from NFTs, no matter how bullish the market becomes
27 Nov 2023
A little bitcoin goes a long way
Bitcoin is again shining as a portfolio diversifier, and reduces the risk in a traditional 60/40 portfolio.
27 Sep 2023
Paying Attention To CME Traders Can Pay Off
Short-time frame traders could benefit from paying close attention to CME activity, as data suggests it offers informational value regarding BTC’s performance ahead.
30 Aug 2023
Enticing Discount on ETHE
We have long been advocates of using the Grayscale BTC Trust for BTC exposure due to its hefty discount. Now, we believe it is a good time to increase ETH exposure and with the ongoing ETF debacle, the Grayscale ETH trust can be a favourable way to do it.
22 Aug 2023
Time to increase ETH exposure?
Bitcoin, driven by heavyweight spot ETF applications, has outperformed Ether significantly in 2023. Now, the signals point towards a reversion.
22 Aug 2023
Derivatives liquidations behind the Thursday collapse
The collapse saw harsh and sudden volatility after a prolonged lull – in line with our warnings of stability breeding instability in crypto markets.
15 Aug 2023
Supply idle in the market
On-chain flows and extended supply assessments indicate passive market participants throughout the year. Our “Liquid tradeable BTC Proxy” has been stable at 18% since the fall of FTX and sits in line with the February 2020 levels.
15 Aug 2023
Trading idea: It's time to bet on volatility
The ear-deafening silence from the market throughout the summer of 2023 has pushed implied volatilities well below former all-time lows, reducing the costs of contrarian vol bets
14 Aug 2023
Cryptocurrencies: A trillion-dollar market
Ten years ago, the concept of cryptocurrencies was a nascent and largely unproven technology, with their collective value teetering close to zero. Fast forward to the present day, and the crypto landscape has undergone a staggering transformation.
08 Aug 2023
ETF momentum in ETH
14 different providers have filed for ETH ETFs under the 1940 act parole.
08 Aug 2023
ARK’s second deadline is near
We are rapidly approaching the second ARK 21Shares spot BTC ETF filing deadline, scheduled for August 13.
31 Jul 2023
Exploring the derivatives market structure
Binance reigns as the largest exchange measured by open interest dominance, with Bybit and CME taking the second and third places.
30 Jul 2023
The U.K. accounts for 1/3 of crypto employment in Europe
In Europe, the United Kingdom sees nearly a third of all crypto employment, while EU majors France, Germany, Spain, and Italy represent a further 23% of European crypto employment.
23 Jul 2023
Asia employs 35% of the global crypto workforce
Multiple hubs, major domestic exchanges and a flourishing labor market.
19 Jul 2023
U.S. Government coins on the move
Is the second Silk Road batch on its way to the market?
18 Jul 2023
Everything’s bigger in the U.S. – also crypto
Many of the world’s most influential crypto companies are based in the U.S., incentivized by deeper capital markets.
18 Jul 2023
XRP bonanza after partial victory
After a lengthy legal battle between the SEC and Ripple, the case progressed this week, with XRP receiving a partial victory leading to a massive XRP rally.
12 Jul 2023
Offshore activity low compared to CME
Perp OI consistent with late May levels, while CME's OI sits 30% higher than June 1 levels.
11 Jul 2023
GBTC discount narrows to May 2022 levels
GBTC's discount has risen to 26.5% following BlackRock's BTC ETF announcement.
06 Jul 2023
Strongest global monthly BTC ETP flows since October 2021
Institutional activity in BTC is currently thriving.
29 Jun 2023
BTC strength concentrated to U.S. hours
BTC has seen staircase gains over the past week, tending to push higher during U.S. market hours and stabilizing as the U.S. market closes.
28 Jun 2023
CME OI nearing all-time highs
The BlackRock announcement, in combination with the launch of EDX Markets and multiple ETF re-filings, contributed to revitalizing institutional activity in BTC over the past week.
21 Jun 2023
A tidal wave of positive institutional headlines
It's getting increasingly harder not to be optimistic about the future outlook for BTC towards the tail-end of the year and Q1 2024.
21 Jun 2023
Blackrock files for BTC ETF
We explore BlackRock's ETF filing, the timing of the filing, potential implications, and how Q1, 2024 is shaping up to become a monumental quarter.
14 Jun 2023
Bitcoin vs. Altcoins – what has been the most profitable?
Bitcoin has been the better 'buy and hold' strategy, but the altcoin portfolio shows the potential for extra profits by timing the market or picking the altcoin winners.
14 Jun 2023
Implications of the SEC charges and lessons from XRP
Last week’s SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase caused turmoil in the market, particularly for tokens implicated as Digital Asset Securities in the filings.
Source: Tradingview
07 Jun 2023
Shorts already squeezed - what's next?
In yesterday's Ahead of the Curve, We argued that the market overreacted to the Binance news. We're now firmly back to where we started the week, structurally and technically.
06 Jun 2023
SEC's cases against Binance and Coinbase explained
In this piece, we summarize the overlap and differences between the two cases in the easiest possible fashion.
30 May 2023
The difference between a native token and a token
The native token can be compared to a national currency. Only crypto has no geographical borders - just networks and blockchains.
23 May 2023
What if - Comparing investing in crypto in 2017 to 2018
Last week, we showed what would happen if you invested in cryptocurrencies in early 2018. Investing in early 2018 was, in hindsight, the worst timing possible. Now, what if you, instead of reacting to the hype in late 2017, were ahead of the curve?
16 May 2023
What if you bought all the top 10 cryptos in January 2018?
In late 2017, Bitcoin became widely renowned through the ferocious rally peaking at close to $20,000 shortly before Christmas. In a second wave lasting into early 2018, altcoins spearheaded by XRP and Ethereum rocketed while Bitcoin started dropping off.
10 May 2023
Web3 - the buzzest of buzzwords
People frequently misuse many words and their associations for a variety of purposes. The phrase 'Web3' has risen high on that list lately. Numerous companies and projects brand themselves as Web3 – but often, this could not be further from the truth.
Source: Similarweb. 
Exchanges included: Binance, Coinbase, FTX, Bybit, Deribit, Gate, Nexo, Crypto.com, BlockFi, Kraken, Bitstamp, Kucoin, Upbit, Bithumb, OpenSea, Bitfinex, OKCoin, Bitso, Luno, Indodax, Bittrex, Mercado Bitcoin, Uniswap, Huobi, OKX, BitMEX, Bitget, Gemini, Binance US, FTX US, Blockchain.com, MEXC, CoinDCX, Firi, NBX
*NB! Web traffic may be artificially inflated through click farms
21 Apr 2023
A global retail exodus
Global exchange traffic is down 25% from this summer globally.
21 Apr 2023
345,000 Norwegians own crypto - Falling 75,000 from 2022
An estimated 345,000 Norwegians currently own cryptocurrencies, down 75,000 from last year, but still higher than 2021 levels.
19 Apr 2023
Ethereum staking - How much rewards are left to withdraw?
Close to 1.5 million Ether has been withdrawn since the Shanghai upgrade on Wednesday 12th of April. Two-thirds of these withdrawals are built-up rewards from past validator duties.
Source: CME Group, Skew
19 Apr 2023
ETH open interest up 39% on CME
Massive surge in ETH activity following Shanghai, while BTC activity reigns stale. Are institutions rotating exposure?
Source: Tradingview
12 Apr 2023
CME behind BTC's recent strength?
Growing OI and volumes before and during the initial push higher suggests so.
Source: Tradingview
11 Apr 2023
A reliable pattern or an illusory correlation?
BTC’s current drawdown and recovery cycle is remarkably similar to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory. Let's look at some clues from the past.
28 Mar 2023
What happens when Michael Saylor buys bitcoin?
Spoiler: Prices go up - then down.
15 Mar 2023
The impact of growth expectations on current prices
This article presents a very stylized argument. I want to highlight that, everything else equal, rising demand will lead to rising prices, but an investor will not get higher profits given that everyone is rational.
15 Mar 2023
The Bear Case for Ether
Ethereum dominates the smart contract world because of its first-mover advantage. But what can ruin the value of Ether?
Source: Ycharts
14 Mar 2023
Grayscale versus SEC
The market reacted positively to Grayscale’s oral hearing versus the SEC last Tuesday, as GBTC’s discounts narrowed. What's next?
26 Feb 2023
Ultrasound does not matter for 'smart blockchain tokens'
Deflation does not increase token returns with staking.
26 Feb 2023
A naïve approach to valuing Ether
In “A framework for evaluating token prices” we suggested a conceptual way to think about the fundamental value of cryptocurrencies. In this article, we analyze “Access Utility” and its impact on token price in a very naïve and stylized way.
31 May 2022
How Terra created the perfect exit liquidity
If the Terra Ecosystem was a sinking cruise ship, the captain and distinguished guests fled in superyachts, leaving most passengers behind without lifeboats.