A deeply defensive derivatives market
BTC experiences a choppy recovery amid CME inactivity, de-risking in perps, and skews approaching 2022 highs, as risk aversion remains the dominant bias.
Preview
Low activity consolidation Bitcoin consolidated near $90,000 last week with a 5 percent gain supported by a strong rebound on Tuesday and a continued pattern of higher lows despite brief sell-offs. Trading volumes have fallen, signaling lighter sell-side pressure although traders remain cautious. The main catalyst ahead is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets are pricing an 89.4 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. This is the lowest pre FOMC confidence level of 2025 and it leaves the door open for notable volatility given Powell’s earlier ambiguity.CME activity fully dried upCME activity has been exceptionally muted, with annualized futures premiums flat, a slightly wider term structure, and open interest holding in an unusually tight 121,000 to 122,000 BTC range, resulting in one of the lowest OI volatility readings ever at 0.34%. Such subdued conditions have historically appeared ahead of major market moves and during periods of elevated uncertainty.
