Despite being in the spotlight yesterday, Binance activity was the key contributor to the surging open interest, seeing a daily growth of 8.3%. The growth was accompanied by funding rates melting down toward March lows, an indication that a bearish bias may be an overcrowded consensus trade for the short term."
Bitcoin is classified as a commodity. Americans can purchase BTC through a plethora of exchanges, exchange-traded funds, payment apps, and more. Binance.US is not a significant loss. Liquidity could consolidate further towards Coinbase and Kraken, but the market should not crash 5% on these developments.
PerpsBTCUSDT funding reached March lows on Monday but recovered to neutral levels as BTC recovered.
OI surged to 314k BTC on Monday and got squeezed back to 290k.
Source: Tradingview (Coinbase), Binance
For now, perps no longer seem squeezable, neither to the upside nor downside.
CME Bitcoin FuturesNon-ETF dominance on CME surged to 44% on Monday as OI grew by 13.3% amidst surging volumes and plunging basis. OI fell by 5.5% yesterday, 7% higher than the Friday close.
CME's 1mth basis recovered at 8%, higher than the weekly open (3%). The higher open interest, and growing basis is a positive development from the institutional side of the market.
Source: CME Group, ProShares, Valkyrie, VanEck, Bitwise
The rangeBTC found support at Feb highs, and for now, I expect the 3mth trading range to hold firm and the chop to ensue.
Summers are slow, few catalysts are ahead. BTC volatility of late largely stems from activity from within with minimal external capital rotation.
Source: Tradingview, K33 Research