This time is indeed different
While BTC shows signs of short-term overheating, the structural backdrop is radically different from prior cycles. The classic 4-year halving cycle playbook no longer applies in a world where institutional adoption has evolved from dreams into reality.
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All-time highs, even on European soilBitcoin reached new all-time highs this week in both USD and EUR, marking its first euro-denominated record since January 2025. The rally has been driven by consistent daily gains, with BTC rising 8% over the week despite low volatility, while surging derivatives and ETF exposure indicate a mildly overheated market.Ethereum closely tracked Bitcoin’s movement, showing slight outperformance on Tuesday as BTC momentum eased. Grayscale’s introduction of staking to its ETH products could spark further ETF interest, and altcoins may benefit from increased enthusiasm once the U.S. government shutdown concludes. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s 4% crypto allocation cap for aggressive portfolios signals growing institutional adoption.
