Monthly Outlook

06 May 2024
May Outlook: Accumulate in May
My base case is that the market is due to be choppy in the coming months. Bitcoin’s clear seasonal stagnation pattern from May to September makes it hard to be affirmatively bullish in May.
11 Apr 2024
Mid-April Outlook: All eyes on the halving
Accumulate, hold, and wait. The halving and new ETF waves will occur, but a slowing block production and lengthy consolidation increase the risk of short-term adverse flushes lower, favoring long spot exposure for the time being.
05 Mar 2024
March Outlook: All gas, no brakes?
The tendency of choppy conditions ahead of ATH breakouts and the exuberance in derivatives markets favors non-leveraged spot exposure.
07 Feb 2024
February Outlook: The market rewards the patient
Few near-term catalysts, continued structural adjustments, and a new bulk of GBTC outflows point towards February being a period for holding and accumulating.
01 Jan 2024
January Outlook: Going to be a big month
After seven long months of BTC buoyancy, the date is finally here - the ETF verdict is coming! Is it priced in? Will the ETFs be approved? Will the launch be a sell-the-news event, or will inflows propel BTC higher?
05 Dec 2023
December Outlook: Running along the front runners
December is poised to be a strong month for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole.
06 Nov 2023
November Outlook: The market is right?
It’s hard, nearly impossible, not to remain bullish in November. An ETF verdict is nine weeks away, and institutional traders provide the only significant heater witnessed in the derivatives market.
03 Oct 2023
October Outlook: More Chop Ahead
A lackluster futures-based ETH ETF launch and a dearth of compelling narratives in Ethereum favor reduced ETH exposure. I anticipate ongoing October consolidation, extending the BTC accumulation window as medium-term fundamentals remain solid.
07 Sep 2023
September Outlook: The market is wrong
The market dramatically underestimates the impact of U.S. ETFs. A slow September favor strategic positioning ahead of an October packed with market-moving events. I favor a mix of increased ETH exposure and conservatively leveraged long exposure in BTC
01 Aug 2023
August Outlook: A violent wake-up is near
The anemic summer revives the attractiveness of straddles as we approach months filled with known knowns and unknown unknowns. Further, the slow market is promising to further build exposure as we head towards a robust cyclical period for BTC.
04 Jul 2023
July Outlook: Institutions are back
The resurgence of the U.S. ETF race represents a monumental change to bitcoin, with all ingredients in place for a spicy market in the coming nine months in favor of more aggressive positioning in BTC.
06 Jun 2023
June Outlook: Momentum Mori
Now is the time to buy options with far-dated expiries and read a good book over the summer while you reinitiate your BTC accumulation.
02 May 2023
May Outlook: No blow-off top – yet
May is shaping up to become a volatile month.
28 Feb 2023
Monthly market wrap-up: A game of hot potato
My short-term outlook has improved after a slow but SEC-heavy February and a BTC push toward $28k could happen sooner rather than later. Further, Shanghai represents attractive narrative-based opportunities in favor of increased weighing in LDO and ETH.
30 Jan 2023
Monthly market Wrap-Up: Honey badger don't care
Short-term, I am bearish as the crypto market strength seems over-extended across multiple metrics, while a FED pivot still seems far away. Long-term, I am steadfastly bullish as BTC reclaims pre-FTX trauma levels.